by JD » Jan 23, 2012 2:13 pm
One of the local NGOs recently was bragging about how many caves they collectively checked for WNS last year, some 40 some-odd sites.
That was almost as many as I personally visited and examined all by my lonesome last year...not on anyone's clock. Though I admit I was examining mostly for cultural resources I cetainly noted bats and numbers and species. So I can report 40+ caves wth NO SIGN of WNS. So between the both of us we examined almost 100 caves last year. Only 9000+ more in my state alone...
Somehow that doesn't add up to 5.7 million dead bats, which is an unsubstantiated and very suspect number, but the dissemination of actual data seems to not be on the radar for the USFWS.
Anyway, the agency people in Tennessee are counting in caves again last week and this...which is way too late, as the weather here is so mild now many bats will be out and about today. What happened here (If I can read between the lines of Peter's post) is that the counters did not find the large numbers of WNS infected bats they expected, but rather than accept the fact their expecations were WRONG they claimed it was a methodological error and they "missed" a lot of WNS bats by counting early in the season, so now they want to count them later. I predict the same results, less WNS than they expect. When, though, will they correct their theories based on data rather than loking for data to bolster their weak theories?
What we need are real numbers for specific cave sites, broken down by species. We also need the pre-WNS data. Keeping county-only maps is ridiculous. Who, exactly, are they trying to keep the data from? They can use non-identifiable names, like Archeologists use Unnamed Cave #12, if they are worried about specific locations.
We need to know 1. which caves are infected 2. what the pre-WNS population was for each site and 3. the methodology used to deterrmine pre-WNS populations and 4. the current counts. It would also help bolster the very suspicious 5.7 million number if we could get 5. a percentage of caves which have had 100% die-off. Like, in State A, 13 of the 19 sites have 100% mortality. The USFWS keeps stressing the 100% sites, but there are several states where not a single WNS site has anything LIKE 100% mortality - think KY. and Tenn. Real science involves releasing the data so others can double check the work. All I see is a reluctance to release real information. Did you read the USFWS Press Release on 5.7 million - an almost fact free statement posing as science. Or else release the minutes from the meeting where they came up with this dubious number.
Perhaps none of the 100 % mortality sites have recovered, but what about all the other sites? What about the site where ONE bat was found with WNS, MMmmn? Has it recovered? There are no WNS bats there currently. But there are healthy bats. Shouldn't it be taken off the map?
Unlike some of the posters here, I don't see WNS as a money-cow - scientists know better than to go into biology if they want bucks - they can go into weapons industries if they are just doing it for money. But caves are far too important to leave public policy to bat biologists, who are myopic and concerned only with one aspect of the cave environment. At a minimum, we need to see the data and double check their work. Then we can argue over policy. But for them to not release data is unacceptable.
Brian, perhaps you should file a FOI request from USFWS for the raw data. While some federally owned caves are not covered by it, every private, state owned, or federal cave not listed as significant IS covered and that data collected by USWFS will have to be released. Normally scientists publish their data. But perhaps J. Coleman and others involved in this feel their science is so weak it can not pass peer review. Based on the USFWS Press Release I suspect they don't HAVE real data on pre-WNS numbers, which means they are just making up the 5.7 million figure. Normally I don't want to see policy made on the basis of invented numbers no-one can check.