Do Cavers spread White Nose Syndrome?

[BrianC]

I attended the Tennessee Bat Working Group meeting last month and heard a presentation on modeling the spread of WNS. The researcher used factors like the number of bats, infectivity (not the same as species susceptibility), and two bat transmission modes (short distance and longer distance.) Based on these factors, a model for the spread of WNS was created which almost perfectly explains the spread of WNS. Note, the model has NO HUMAN transmission component yet it explains the spread very well. This seems to put the lie to early speculation by USFWS and some cavers that WNS
had somehow "jumped" and that therefore humans somehow "must"be involved in its spread.

There was no "jump'. The disease's spread can be explained and modelled on the basis of bat-to-bat transmission based on distances we know bats fly.

Perhaps this and other research should be used to sharpen the discussions heard here, which are a bit out of date as well as stale.

Thanks JD. That ends that!

[Pippin]

Andy, you read my mind! I simply cannot read posts made up of incomplete sentences strung together by dots. Those posts make my eyes hurt.

It's pretty clear to me now that cavers are not contributing to the spread of WNS. I was undecided in 2009 and I actually did cut back my caving for a while to just caves in AL and GA. However, after watching the progression this past year, it's obvious to me that we are playing no role in the spread. If we were, WNS would be in every single popular cave in TAG and the midwest. It isn't. I think staying 30 miles away from an infected cave is just silly and I won't do it. I guess you think we should also stay 30 miles away from a barn, bridge, attic or forest that shelters infected bats? I will continue to be very diligent about cleaning my gear just to be safe, staying out of caves with more than just a few bats (although we all do that anyway), and not disturbing any bats I do see.

I also attended the TBWG meeting and the presentation JD mentioned really did an excellent job of explaining the spread of WNS via bat to bat. The model matches up very well with what is actually happening. Unfortunately, the model predicts very, very hard times over the next few years for our bats. And guess what? The presentation relied on actual science, not wild speculation and general panic. WNS is going to keep spreading even if every single caver in the entire country stops caving right now. It would have spread the past couple of years if every single caver had stopped caving in 2008. There's nothing anyone can do to stop WNS. That doesn't mean we all shouldn't continue to clean our gear, continue to stay out of bat caves and continue to educate the public about bats and WNS. But nobody should continue to blame cavers for a wildlife disaster that is clearly not our fault.

[PYoungbaer]

JD, Pippin, or anyone else who was at the TBWG presentation, do you have a link to or copy of the presentation? Who gave it? Sounds like it would be a very good presentation to study. We would love to get it and post it on the WNS website.

A word of caution, however - just because one researcher gave a presentation doesn't "put it to lie," or to rest, or to bed, or mean it's true. I attended a workshop year and a half ago at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville's NIMBioS (National Institute on Mathematical and Biological Synthesis). There were about 25 of us who spent several days with experts in mathematical modeling to see if there were ways to apply modeling techniques to WNS questions.

These questions ranged from possible ways to predict the growth of the disease within a single bat, within a colony, within a geographic region, to assisting with various management strategies and even mitigation and treatment strategies - including whether culling, for example, might work.

With the addition of epidemiologists at the table for the first time at that NIMBios Workshop, some fresh looks were taken at various ways to try to address WNS. However, the models are just that: possible predictors - and rough ones at that. It takes field testing and surveillance over lengthy periods of time to fill in the blanks and refine and test the models to see if they are, in fact, accurate. With good confirmation, we can begin to feel more comfortable with the knowledge that the model is, indeed, good. Until then, it's just a model.

I would not be at all surprised if this model grew out of the NIMBioS work. Some of the models we worked with were very exciting, showing all sorts of possibilities of how scientific efforts and resources might better be targeted toward understanding WNS.

This particular presentation sounds like a very interesting one. But declaring it as definitive is way too premature. This is not published research, and it would be well-served to get it out there for people to peruse and critique. Anyone with contact information or links, please let me know. Thanks.

[eyecave]

*****BLANKET ANNOUNCEMENT TO ALL CAVECHAT POSTERS*****

If your posts consist of chains of sentence fragments connected by chains of dots, I WILL NEVER READ THEM. You may make the best arguments ever, but I won't know. I don't have time to try and learn a new punctuation system.

I knew James Joyce, I worked with James Joyce, and you sir, are no James Joyce.

don't confuse my pointing out the name of my style and any other claims......why do i have to even say that?

[eyecave]

Andy, you read my mind! I simply cannot read posts made up of incomplete sentences strung together by dots. Those posts make my eyes hurt.

when i first began writing like i do i was basically relearning how to use grammar........what became very obvious to me very quickly was that some people were actually upset and angered by my style of communicating!.... ....i found that odd... ...

i have found that there are more people that seem to have no difficulty following what i write....i have even had people think my style is a good thing and they think they get more meaning out of my style of writing......most of them recognize that they need to sound the words, not just scan them, and that the dots are pauses... ....

i have had this problem with hate posts directed at my style of writing before.....typically it will be the same people, over and over...never mind the substance in the posts............i think those of you who do that are insensitive and you must lack a gene for understanding that others seem to possess........... ........for those people please skip my posts.... ..do not read, respond, or even scan them, they will make no sense to you anyway..... ....

....my undergraduate interest was the biopsychology of perception, so this variance of reaction was and still if of great interest to me.........i felt then and still feel that getting that diverse a reaction was a positive thing........soooooo..i guess you hp's should continue your attacks on my technique and ignore everything else, i am slowly learning to post more and more legibly for you....but, i will never fully recover......i don't want to!.......

these and those of you who persist in ignoring the main point in my arguments let me make it reaaaaallllllllllllllyyyyyyyy simple for you.......i am even going to temporarily use normal style writing grammar....please excuse any slight grammatical mistakes.. ...

Question one:

Do you understand genetics and evolution? If you do, feel free to continue reading and address the next question. However; if you don't have some college or self educated understanding of genetics and evolution please shut up, your ignorance is showing and your arguments are ultimately only harmful.

Question two:

What would be the effect on question one if wns suddenly appeared in Mexico, Central or South America, or even California or Florida?

Question three:

If i were to go into a cave with known heavy WNS, would i come out with spores on my person and gear after a 10 hour trip?

please don't do the following: criticize my style.....talk about migratory routes without addressing the possibility of groups of cavers within an area caving in the caves within close proximity of each other.......or even think that i am not aware that transmission of any disease process between members of that same species is easier and more likely than any other possible transmission mode......if you can avoid those things and incorporate the others please respond...in other words......COULD cavers spread wns and if you still persist in ignoring biological opportunism........then SHOULD cavers, as a group support total suspension of caving during hibernation months?.......

remember kids we could just import european bats.......and cause other problems.........

[eyecave]

I attended the Tennessee Bat Working Group meeting last month and heard a presentation on modeling the spread of WNS. The researcher used factors like the number of bats, infectivity (not the same as species susceptibility), and two bat transmission modes (short distance and longer distance.) Based on these factors, a model for the spread of WNS was created which almost perfectly explains the spread of WNS. Note, the model has NO HUMAN transmission component yet it explains the spread very well. This seems to put the lie to early speculation by USFWS and some cavers that WNS
had somehow "jumped" and that therefore humans somehow "must"be involved in its spread.

There was no "jump'. The disease's spread can be explained and modelled on the basis of bat-to-bat transmission based on distances we know bats fly.

Perhaps this and other research should be used to sharpen the discussions heard here, which are a bit out of date as well as stale.

Thanks JD. That ends that!

please educate us as to what kept the models from fitting the spread of WNS perfectly.........

[JSDunham]

To be honest, I've heard too much nonsense spouted by "biologists," who should know better, to the effect that there are these huge "jumps" and "human transmission is likely." Never once have I seen those claims supported by data. I'm glad someone has created a model that shows bat-to-bat transmission explains all of the WNS spread, great!

Eyecave, I have no comment on your writing style--but you do seem to share an approach to the topic that I have a problem with, the same one that is used by far too many "biologists" who are really not following scientific principals. That is, they are using negative proof. (Which isn't proof at all.) A positive proof relies on actual evidence, like: "I believe humans do not spread WNS because the existing spread of WNS can be fully explained within statisical variation by bat-to-bat transmission along known migratory paths. A model predicting the spread along these lines nearly perfectly matches the actual distribution observed in the field." A negative proof relies not on any actual evidence, but rather on lack of evidence for one possible alternative. Here is an example of a negative proof: "There is no conclusive evidence that humans do not spread WNS, therefore we must assume they do and take measures to manage that vector."

Other negative proofs are things like "You can't prove God doesn't exist, therefore he does." and "Show me a real Obama birth certificate or he's a muslim from africa." and "There's no proof that responding to internet forums doesn't cause cancer, therefore we're all going to die."

These are obviously not reliable or even really worthy of consideration. Even if the statements above are true, that we're getting cancer, Obama is a secret muslim, and God does exist (and I'm not saying they are or aren't) my statements above are in no way proof of them. And they can't be, because they're not testable.

Positive proofs can be disputed, because they rely on evidence that can be peer-reviewed and tested. Negative proofs have nothing reasonable to be disproved or evaluated, just a nebulous lack of something positive--and are therefore, by definition, unscientific.

So, to everyone out there who is championing human transmission, please take care that you provide real evidence in support of your claims, not a lack of evidence for the alternative.

[BrianC]

To be honest, I've heard too much nonsense spouted by "biologists," who should know better, to the effect that there are these huge "jumps" and "human transmission is likely." Never once have I seen those claims supported by data. I'm glad someone has created a model that shows bat-to-bat transmission explains all of the WNS spread, great!

Eyecave, I have no comment on your writing style--but you do seem to share an approach to the topic that I have a problem with, the same one that is used by far too many "biologists" who are really not following scientific principals. That is, they are using negative proof. (Which isn't proof at all.) A positive proof relies on actual evidence, like: "I believe humans do not spread WNS because the existing spread of WNS can be fully explained within statisical variation by bat-to-bat transmission along known migratory paths. A model predicting the spread along these lines nearly perfectly matches the actual distribution observed in the field." A negative proof relies not on any actual evidence, but rather on lack of evidence for one possible alternative. Here is an example of a negative proof: "There is no conclusive evidence that humans do not spread WNS, therefore we must assume they do and take measures to manage that vector."

Other negative proofs are things like "You can't prove God doesn't exist, therefore he does." and "Show me a real Obama birth certificate or he's a muslim from africa." and "There's no proof that responding to internet forums doesn't cause cancer, therefore we're all going to die."

These are obviously not reliable or even really worthy of consideration. Even if the statements above are true, that we're getting cancer, Obama is a secret muslim, and God does exist (and I'm not saying they are or aren't) my statements above are in no way proof of them. And they can't be, because they're not testable.

Positive proofs can be disputed, because they rely on evidence that can be peer-reviewed and tested. Negative proofs have nothing reasonable to be disproved or evaluated, just a nebulous lack of something positive--and are therefore, by definition, unscientific.

So, to everyone out there who is championing human transmission, please take care that you provide real evidence in support of your claims, not a lack of evidence for the alternative.

This is the finest example of explaining why caves are closed. It took zero evidence to close caves, why do you think one factual example of truth will open them?. Do little green men really exist in caves?

and stay away from the little green men.

[PYoungbaer]

eyecave,

Long before there was WNS, it was good caving practice to avoid hibernating bats. It still is.

[Phil Winkler]

Bacteria and fungi are ubiquitous. There is nothing you can do to prevent their spread and presence in nature. Nothing.

Ground water flows over the surface and into conduits to streams, rivers, caves, etc. Carrying heaven's knows what with it.

What a single person does is largely insignificant to nature.

As I've read what all are doing for decon I can think how silly it all seems when you consider the big picture.

Bats will survive in some manner. In the end the earth wins.

[Teresa]

Bacteria and fungi are ubiquitous. There is nothing you can do to prevent their spread and presence in nature. Nothing.

Ground water flows over the surface and into conduits to streams, rivers, caves, etc. Carrying heaven's knows what with it.

What a single person does is largely insignificant to nature.

As I've read what all are doing for decon I can think how silly it all seems when you consider the big picture.

Bats will survive in some manner. In the end the earth wins.

Wow. Phil Winkler and I agree 100% re above. This has to be a red-letter day!

If more people (including some biologists) took at least geology intro in K-12 or college, and understood how the planet really works over the long haul, we would have come up with a rational approach by now.

What I am getting a kick out of is: most cavers don't read the MSDS sheets and the bottles on the various disinfection agents, and are spending unneeded money. The Formula 409 thing slays me: people are buying the industrial concentrate, and then diluting it, but avoiding the on the shelf stuff, which is the same stuff, only already diluted. Say what?

[MUD]

DECON IS FOR DUMMIES!

[caverdan]

The real problem lies in removing all these spores that are having sex with themselves.......off of our bodies and out of our hair.

[tncaver]

The real problem lies in removing all these spores that are having sex with themselves.......off of our bodies and out of our hair.

Gosh Dan, if you really feel that way, simply don't go caving.

[BrianC]

The real problem lies in removing all these spores that are having sex with themselves.......off of our bodies and out of our hair.

Regardless of what you here, the GD spores associated with White Nose Syndrome, don't develop without the host (bat). So the spores in your hair can be collected and eaten with any cave cricket soup, or garnish among other fine cave cuisine.