Why are no new WNS sightings becoming public?

[BrianC]

That is very respectable Pippin, and I did know that was why the signs were designed! I was having a fit at the moment and didn't feel like editing the post! I had just read something that set me off! Sorry!

[tncaver]

I helped put up several of those "cave closed" signs at a cave in Alabama in October. It's the largest gray bat hibernation cave in the country and there are at least 1.5 million gray bats in there right now, probably some Indiana bats too. Some caves need to be closed right now. The FWS is not running all over Alabama putting up "cave closed" signs at random caves, the ones they're closing and signing are all significant bat caves that I hope we all agree people should stay out of anyway. The FWS is planning to go to the closed bat caves next month to see if there are any signs of WNS.

Closing bat hibernaculum during hibernation has never been an issue with me. Although most major hibernaculum in Tennessee have no signage, most have
always been considered closed by CAVERS this time of year (not necessarily so for non informed tourists). The Tennessee Cave survey print out, lists caves
that are supposed to be closed this time of year. This was so long before WNS came along. The problem with the USFWS and other agencies was and
still IS the closure of ALL caves ALL THE TIME. And this is what the CBD in another thread intends to do and it would seem that USFWS has the same plan.

Pippin, the only question I have for you is: Define Significant bat cave?

[wyandottecaver]

John,

I am well aware of the reputation of BCM and your own work in the field. You have also maaintained an excellent site with valuable resources. However, with respect, the data on your page is simply not current (as your date admits).

More to the point, while human transport does remain a possibility, the observed pattern of spread is far far different now and thus the implications drawn from it are also different.

The early WV and VA jumps are now shown to be exceptions rather than a consistent pattern of discontinuous jumps. Further, soil sampling, while still incomplete, has shown WNS present in the soil of all WNS affected sites and absent from all non-WNS sites, even those in close proximity to infected sites. Thus, the "lag time" theory is very unlikely now.

The caver database of visits has also largely shown WNS to *not* be following that pattern either. Yes, some caves did get WNS after being visited by cavers from WNS caves. Many many more did not. And none of the caves that did were beyond the reach of a bat.

It is still too soon to tell for this year, but so far WNS is not "hopping and skipping" but steadily prrogressing to adjacent or nearby counties. Again, not what we would expect if human transport were occuring with any degree of frequency.

Many still hold that human transport is probable rather than possible, and if that is your contention as well fine. The general hardiness of fungi and the ability of contaminated cave mud to support WNS are all viable arguments. The pattern of spread, a potential lag time, and caver movements were also valid...earlier. Not any longer.

[hewhocaves]

wait.. we're not allowed to count the hits and ignore the misses??

Science is HARD!

[Pippin]

The FWS caves I know of that are closed/signed here have bat populations that range at the low end from 5,000, to 40,000 for another, 400,000 for a third, and a fourth of up to 1.5 million. These caves all have endangered grays. Those are certainly significant and they're a tiny percentage of Alabama caves. I have worked with USFWS biologists for over ten years here and they are not the enemy. The biologists I've worked with here don't want to close ALL caves, they just want to save the bats, and have gone out of their way to work with the local caving community.

[tncaver]

The FWS caves I know of that are closed/signed here have bat populations that range at the low end from 5,000, to 40,000 for another, 400,000 for a third, and a fourth of up to 1.5 million. These caves all have endangered grays. Those are certainly significant and they're a tiny percentage of Alabama caves. I have worked with USFWS biologists for over ten years here and they are not the enemy. The biologists I've worked with here don't want to close ALL caves, they just want to save the bats, and have gone out of their way to work with the local caving community.

That is really good to hear. I think both Georgia and Alabama have a better group of USFWS representatives than Tennessee does. USFWS Reps here have
been no better than those of Northern states that have had genuine WNS outbreaks. That is probably why I have an "attitude" toward government
and conservation agencies in my state. Both seem to have an uneducated BAD attitude toward cavers. The attitude they are displaying is going to create non
cooperation from many cavers in TN from now on until those groups demonstrate a cooperative attitude. That is too bad. Currently I see no end to the lack
of common sense these agencies are demonstrating in my state and many other states to our North.

[John Chenger]

Perhaps the pattern of the slow spread is simply because people have started to decon or at least wash gear more often, or take fewer regional trips, whatever. The pattern of spread, a potential lag time, and caver movements were valid and remain completely in play. Nowhere have I EVER stated this was only a people-bat spread or only a bat-bat spread. They are probably interrelated and I have demonstrated those points elsewhere in some post(s) here. Folks seem to be now saying "the spread is slow now in 2010 so it's just going bat to bat and people aren't affecting it anymore so let's cave whereever and whenever and no need for deconning gear anymore". How can we flip-flop from "its a bat problem" to "its a _____ problem" (insert group to be demonized at the moment, cavers/bat biologisits) a few sentences apart it truly bewildering. Just because the "observed pattern" is different in this snapshot than in 2009 suddenly the whole underlying biology of a fungus changed and people no longer can move it around? Well dandy, perhaps 2010 the fungus will only stick to bats, and 2011 it will only stick to feral cats.

"The caver database of visits has also largely shown WNS to *not* be following that pattern either. Yes, some caves did get WNS after being visited by cavers from WNS caves. Many many more did not."

How many caves actually had any sort of significant bat populations in them? Very few, I'll wager. Very, very few caves even contain any appreciable # of bats, period. What about the timing...if the fungus wasn't fruiting those people might walk thu a WNS cave and not pick anything up. How many people washed their clothes in the interim? What if simply rinsing your coveralls in the stream after a trip reduced WNS potential 90%? We've been over the "many more did not" argument and it holds water like a paper bag. Given all the factors, the fact that some of those WNS flashpoints (Alexander Caverns, PA; Trout Rocks, WV; the Blacksburg, VA caves; the caves in western NY) even developed symptoms presumably hitchhiking on people is astounding.

"And none of the caves that did were beyond the reach of a bat." Show me your trans-Atlantic bat; this hasn't happened since Pangea had a president.

[tncaver]

"The caver database of visits has also largely shown WNS to *not* be following that pattern either. Yes, some caves did get WNS after being visited by cavers from WNS caves. Many many more did not."

It appears one thing remains constant. Bats visit ALL WNS sites.

[graveleye]

Show me your trans-Atlantic bat; this hasn't happened since Pangea had a president.

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol9no1/02-0104.htm

cross posted from another WNS thread.

[John Chenger]

Sure, you can FedEX a bat just as well as a caver...you just need a bigger envelope for a caver.

[tncaver]

Sure, you can FedEX a bat just as well as a caver...you just need a bigger envelope for a caver.

That link, that Graveleye provided to an article on the Center for Disease Control website states that bats themselves can be physically moved hundreds or thousands of miles in any direction by winds and shipping containers as well as planes, trains, ships, etc. However, so far WNS has not done that. Cavers also move hundreds and thousands of miles in every direction yet WNS has not.

[BrianC]

Sure, you can FedEX a bat just as well as a caver...you just need a bigger envelope for a caver.

That link, that Graveleye provide to an article on the Center for Disease Control website states that bats themselves can be physically moved hundreds or thousands of miles in any direction by winds and shipping containers as well as planes, trains, ships, etc. However, so far WNS has not done that. Cavers also move hundreds and thousands of miles in every direction yet WNS has not.

This is the best information relevant to how WNS may have gotten here! I felt like a boat from France entering the New York harbor! Can shipping records from 05-06 be retrieved for relevancy?

[PYoungbaer]

And from the New York harbor to Albany, NY, the Hudson River remains flat - at sea level. Albany is an important port, with ships docking there regularly. But this is as speculative as any other transmission theory at this point.

Still, the study on geographic translocation clearly documents that intra- and inter-continental movement of bats occurs far more frequently than commonly thought.

[graveleye]

I think it would probably be safe to say that for every translocated bat documented, there are probably dozens that go completely unnoticed. I would surmise that it is probably more common than we think, but they don't necessarily live long enough to breed. But they may live long enough to pass on a disease.

If they bred like starlings we would have noticed much more. (I hate starlings and if Europe wants them back it would be fine by me!!)

[wyandottecaver]

As I have stated before, the most dismaying thing about this (beyond WNS itself), is that there is lots of effort being directed towards a *potential* vector and zero at the *confirmed* vector. Until you address the primary mode of transmission then everything else is just pissing upwind....which is probably why most of the USFWS methodologies have an unpleasant aroma about them.

just to clarify,

I never advocated that human transmission was not a possibility, not using decon, not avoiding major bat caves, not avoiding known WNS sites or even states, or confining caving to small geographic areas... in short, taking reasonable approaches to minimize a risk that may or may not be present.

What I don't advocate, is using 2007/08 information to make 2010 decisions, or worse, making broad-brush public statements that human transmission does, or is likely, to occur when no evidence supports it. It is indeed possible that decon has slowed WNS...except lots of folks do not decon. Thats the ugly truth. Also, WNS hasnt slowed. It is progressing at roughly the same pace as before minus the anomolous jumps john described. Those jumps were and are suspicious, but have been followed by no others to date. Such jumps would be rare, but possible for bats, but frequent and common for people. Thus, again, the pattern fits bats...not people.

humans transporting bats is a far different thing than humans transporting WNS. Indeed, I think the most likely mechanisim for another "smoking gun" type jump of WNS (i.e. across the atlantic, or across large chunks of the U.S.) is in the accidental transportation of a WNS bat.