by PYoungbaer » Jan 10, 2010 9:47 am
Brian, et al,
Assuming that WNS manifests as it has the past several years, we are just now entering the period of winter hibernation when the bats will start running out of stored body fat. This will cause them to exhibit the familiar behaviors: moving to the front of caves and mines, flying outside during the day, and dying. Most of the folks working on WNS are bracing for a difficult next 3-4 months.
As others have mentioned, both cavers and researchers have cut back on their time in sites, or delayed their monitoring, so it's to be expected that sightings will have been diminished, anyway. NYDEC, for example, won't start up their winter monitoring until later this month. Cavers will be assisting, as they have for many years.
But the main reason we don't have lots of reports yet is that we're just getting to the crucial time in hibernation when they run out of fuel.
PA is a large state, and has not yet fully felt the impact of WNS, despite several confirmed sites. This fall, the swarming surveys documented many less animals and historic sites, but there are thousands more sites. I expect we'll get many reports from PA.
Remember also that the addition of a WNS county to the official map does not occur until there is lab confirmation of the fungus. This takes a few weeks to culture in the lab. The new PA site is next to NJ, not unexpected. We still do not have a quick field diagnostic, although researchers are working on one.
In NY and VT, we have had WNS reports in October and November, earlier than ever. One report, Shingle Gulley, in NY, had hundreds of little browns already fully fungused (if that's a word) early fall. However, a sample was not taken and sent to the USGS lab, so it will not appear on the map. Doing that was not considered a priority, as we're not aware of any eastern NY bat cave that isn't infected.
In Virginia, the project being conducted by the Virginia Heritage Program (three part project funded by USFWS, NSS, and USFWS again) has documented bats coming into hibernation with wing damage. This tells us we can expect fully manifested WNS later this year.
I'm not aware of any information that would lead me to believe this winter won't be very bad in the Virginias, PA, and perhaps beyond. If you're wishing for lots of WNS reports, you may very well get what you wish for. The news would be if we don't.