This is only my opinion. Do not establish personal caving practices on my opinion. Please follow the guidelines of the NSS when making decisions about Caving.
Please pardon me while I post what's on my mind. Please note that this is only my oppinion. It is my theory based on information gleaned from various sources. I have listed references where available.
I believe it will be difficult to obtain cave temperature data. I think based on basic cave properties that It is possible to accurately create a map of cave temperatures without that information. Please read on if you will.
I don't believe that WNS will affect TAG on the scale of northern states or maybe even at all. My idea that WNS is not viable in southern caves is somewhat based on the following information:
Note 1.
“Cave temperature is usually very close to the annual average outside temperature, as the cave has entrances through which outside air penetrates. Because of the large mass of the cave rock, over time the cave temperature has equilibrated to the average outside temperature (human intervention, such as lighting or expansion/creation of entrances can upset this balance).”
Source: http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/env99/env223.htm
David R. Cook
Atmospheric Research Section
Environmental Research Division
Argonne National LaboratoryA large amount of data is available that shows average above ground annual tempertures. There are quite a few maps available online.
It can be inferred from this information that a map of average outside temperatures will be very close to a map of average cave temperatures. There may be no need to obtain actual cave temperature data.
Note 2:
Geomyces sp. Fungus are part of a class of organisms known to be Psychrophiles or Cryophiles. These organisms thrive in an environment less that 15 degrees C. Or 59 degrees F. Geomyces grows well in laboratory experiments at temperatures ranging from 4 C to 15 C. Based on research at Cambridge.
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract;jsessionid=2014EEF3CF5FB3300ED12EE6531E3A60.tomcat1?fromPage=online&aid=2202892Note 3:
White-Nose Syndrome was named for the visible presence of a white fungus around the muzzles, ears, and wing membranes of affected bats. Based upon what is known about typical fungal pathogens of typical mammals, this fungal growth was initially thought to be a secondary infection of bats with compromised immune systems. However, bats are anything but “typical” mammals (see below). Since then, a previously unreported species of cold-loving fungus (Geomyces sp.) has been identified as a consistent pathogen among affected animals and sites. This fungus, now widely considered to be the causal agent of WNS, thrives in the darkness, low temperatures (5-10ºC; 40-50ºF), and high levels of humidity (>90%) characteristic of bat hibernacula. Unlike typical fungi, this species of Geomyces cannot grow above 20°C (68ºF), and therefore appears to be exquisitely adapted to persist in caves and mines and to colonize the skin of hibernating bats. A consistent pattern of fungal skin penetration has been observed in over 90% of bats from the WNS-affected region that were submitted for disease investigation.
The newly identified cold-loving fungus is now thought to be the primary causative agent of White-Nose Syndrome. Available evidence suggests the fungus establishes itself in the skin tissues of bats when their body temperatures are lowered during torpor (2-10ºC; 35-50ºF).
http://www.fort.usgs.gov/WNS/Note 4:
The following is my own belief based on the laws of conservation of energy and thermodynamics.
Common Sense Statement: Bats can not lower their body temperatures lower that the cave temperature around them. Nothing can do this without help from an exterior energy source. (Example Refrigerator)
Based on the knowlege that a bat in hybernation can not lower it's body temp lower than the cave temperature around it. Let's take Pettyjohn's cave for example. This cave has a constant temp of 58 degrees F. A bat can not lower it's body temperature inside PJ cave lower than 58 degrees. As a matter of fact, bats do not lower their body temperature to match that of the cave. It is a matter of fact that bats burn fat during their hybernation. They have to maintain a slightly higher body temperature than their surroundings in order for fat stores to be used up as heat. Based on the first law of thermodynamics and our knowlege that bats burn fat stores while in hybernation, we can deduce that their body temps are slightly higher than their surroundings. If the bat body temp was exactly the same as the cave then no heat transfer would be possible and no fat stores would be used up.
Note 5:
I overlayed two maps. The first map was a map of average annual temperatues (Simulated cave temperatures). The second map was a map of the outbreaks of WNS. The visual representation of WNS exactly followed a line of temperature between 40 to 50 degrees. This line is known as an Isotherm. An isotherm is a line that connects areas of like temperature. Many organisms follow these isotherms when migrating, mating, etc. These isotherms are believed to be comfortable to them. For example, Robins follow isotherms of about 36 to 37 degrees during migration. That's pretty precise.
Conclusion:
Geomyces sp. will not grow well above a temperature somewhere between 50 to 55 degrees F. I will estimate on the safe side and predict 54 F (As others have already said). TAG caves are on average higher temperature than caves in the north. Geomyces sp. will not grow as hardily or even not at all in TAG caves. Maybe the "Mystery disease" portion of the sickess will still prevail but not the white fungus.
This is only my opinion. Do not establish personal caving practices on my opinion. Please follow the guidelines of the NSS when making decisions about Caving.
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