by PYoungbaer » Jul 7, 2009 5:48 pm
I think it's time to change the title of this subforum to "Fungus serious threat to North American Bats."
It's also time to recognize that we are moving rapidly from a collective ad hoc response to WNS, to a more focused and sustained effort to contain, and perhaps eradicate WNS, although whether either is achievable is still very much in doubt.
WNS has clearly gone beyond the northeast, with all signs that it will spread farther this coming winter, and cause increased bat mortalities in the areas it reached this year.
We also now have the largest documented decline in North American wildlife in a century. Not since the demise of the passenger pigeon has such devastation been seen. The possibility of species extinction is very real. The impact on the ecosystem of removing the primary nocturnal insectivore is hard to imagine.
Is this hyperbole? Perhaps hard to imagine in TAG or the far west, ponder this: this summer, the state of New York is running nighttime acoustical bat surveys. With over 100 regular routes, dozens of volunteers - including especially many northeastern cavers who have worked on WNS for the past two years - have had their cars equipped by NYDEC with crazy roof anntennae and acoustical monitoring equipment. Then, heading out at the breakneck speed of 18 MPH (the flight speed of a big brown bat), they record bat calls. In the eastern half of the state, where NY's karst regions dominate, evidence of the little brown bats and other myotis (Indiana, long-eared, small footed) is hard to find. These bats are simply, for the most part, gone.
It also appears correct that it is the fungus that is the threat. In the various meetings I've attended with the scientists and wildlife managers working on WNS - including the recent science strategy meeting in Austin, Texas, and last week's National Institute of Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS) at the University of Tennessee, the fungus Geomyces destructans is clearly implicated as the cause of WNS. There is no evidence to date to implicate bacteria, parasites, viruses, environmental toxins, microwaves, or global warming. While scientists are loathe to declare absolutes, there simply is no other plausible explanation. They are also now calling it a disease.
The spread of WNS has followed a typical infectious disease pattern - emanating from an epicenter. This pattern is also consistent with what has now been shown in the laboratory - that it is transmitted bat to bat. While possible that humans have aided in spreading WNS (including possibly bringing it here from Europe in a "perfect storm" of events), the documented spread is consistent with the known flight patterns and ranges of the affected bat species.
With that in mind, there is a noticeable shift in emphasis within the science and management communities on focusing on the most plausible cause and managing it.
This means we are more likely to see more intense and focused efforts on the WNS "front." These would be the areas ranging out about 250 miles from the known sites. Bats in these caves and mines are most susceptible. If strong intervention measures are applied, it is at these sites that the effort to contain WNS will find its strongest advocates.
USFWS is currently going through something called Structured Decision Making (SDM), examining a range of intervention options for this front zone. They range from doing nothing, to full eradication of bats. This could be wide-ranging or site-specific. Other options include sealing caves and mines, or application of fungicides. This, in an attempt to stop and contain WNS before it reaches other areas of the country or the ranges and habitats of other species.
Of immediate concern is the Virginia long-eared bat and the Grey bat. Indianas also remain of high concern, but on many more fronts. A design for a captive breeding colony of Virginia long eareds has been prepared in a last-ditch effort to save the species. Debate is raging about whether the time to pull the trigger on that strategy has come. Some say it may be too late, that if WNS has a significant latency period - maybe a year or more, then the colonies may already be affected, and putting them into a captive colony is doomed. Without a good histopathological diagnostic tool, that risk may need to be taken - sooner, rather than later. That tool is being worked on by the people in Madison, Wisconsin, but it may not come in time for this species. That's the immediate fear.
Up until now, trying to manage and contain WNS has been with broad - and, yes, crude - tools, such as cave closures and decontamination protocols. I fully expect that the approach will become more nuanced - especially if we are successful in using the mathematical modeling to predict the progress of the disease. As more is learned about the life cycle of the fungus, about how it progresses through an individual bat, about how it progresses through a colony or population of bats, it may become easier to predict where WNS may move next. Part of this modeling will include new research data, but much data is known or available, but un-mined, and can help inform responses.
For example, knowing how much of a population is needed to sustain colony, or even species, existence can inform intervention strategies, such as culling bat colonies or how many may need to be vaccinated or otherwise treated. In the human population, communicable diseases can be controlled, even if 100% of the population isn't immunized - but significant portions must be.
The modeling tools hold out plenty of hope, too. With WNS seemingly sensitive to temperature and humidity, there may be real geographic barriers to the spread of WNS. However, that is speculative and will only be borne out by developing the predictive models and then validating them with data from the field. This approach also holds hope for some management models of adjusting hibernacula microclimates to prevent WNS spread, although such techniques would need to be site specific and are resource-limited, as are many things.
Of course, the bats may just keep spreading WNS despite all our efforts, in which case we may see bat populations continuing to crash to a point where there aren't sufficient bats to host the fungus. At that time, the fungal population will also crash and a new equilibrium may come into being - one with much smaller bat populations - and a smaller fungal population.
Some have said this may be what has occurred in Europe. A genetically identical fungus has been isolated from several different sites in Europe. More tests are being done before it can be declared to be Geomyces destructans. Europe, however, has not seen large bat mortalities. In part, some speculate, that's because Europe does not have large bat colonies - no where near the huge colonies we see in American caves. Could WNS have wiped out large colonies in the past and Europe reached this new equilibrium? No one has found any record of such an occurrence yet. Also, with small bat colonies, it's possible that bats do die of WNS but simply aren't noticed. If a bat or two or three in a colony of 30 or 50 goes missing, but the rest remain, what can we tell? At this point, we know that bats with something that looks like WNS have been documented in Germany as far back as 1983.
One other biological point: many of the scientists are persuaded that this fungus is "introduced." That is, it has not grown up in the environment with the bats. The progress of the disease is consistent with that concept, but many others are waiting for the results of the sediment sampling that we all did this past winter. If the fungus is not found anywhere other than where WNS has been documented, then we've pretty much supported the "introduced" concept.
If, on the other hand, the sampling shows Geomyces destructans to be widespread already in the environment, then the WNS investigation will have to go back to ground zero. That's why that research was so critical, and why we are extremely grateful for the funding and field support many within the NSS gave to the effort. It is key to understanding WNS.
With that key question outstanding - and the answer should be known by early fall, the majority of WNS investigators are moving forward with the belief that they should not let the possibility of some other cause or causes get in the way of tangible action on the most plausible cause.
So, I thought I'd share what I've been seeing, hearing, and learning over the past few months with the various meetings, webinars, conferences, etc. I hope what I've written is understandable. I also hope it helps set a context for what we may be hearing over the next months and year concerning management strategies and research and funding priorities.
I hope to see many of you at our WNS session at the ICS/NSS convention. It's Thursday afternoon, from 2:00 - 5:40 PM. We're planning an extensive presentation on the evolution of WNS, the current status of research, where it may be headed, and what collectively we may be able to do about it.