New numbers on deadly bat disease amplify debate

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New numbers on deadly bat disease amplify debate

Postby Pippin » Jan 23, 2012 2:49 pm

So glad the reporter interviewed Peter for this article. I personally don't buy the mortality numbers FWS released. I want to see exactly how they came up with the 5.7-6.7 million number before I'll believe it.

http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-re ... z1kJQTkfZh

“I’ve been pushing for well over a year to update that number,” said Peter Youngbaer of the National Speleological Society, which has closely monitored the fungus outbreak. “But 6.5 million bats is the top end of the estimate of the entire population of little brown bats in the entire United States. The best I could figure out is they’re using an assumption that virtually all the little brown (bats) have been wiped out, which we know isn’t true. I know a colony in New York where there are still thousands of them. I think that number is high.”
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Re: New numbers on deadly bat disease amplify debate

Postby BrianC » Jan 23, 2012 4:39 pm

Froschauer said the agency used two methods to build its new estimate. One used a mathematical formula where the known population estimates and declines of bats in some states was extrapolated across all the states and Canadian provinces where the disease has been detected.
The other gathered estimates from state wildlife officials of known declines and added them together. Froschauer said both methods produced significantly similar results.
***
But Youngbaer said that number doesn’t give any indication if the disease spread is getting worse or better.
“The story, and the reaction to it, will drive public policy and management decisions like where money is invested,” he said. “It needs to be driven by harder numbers than what they’ve given us. It’s a scary number. It can make folks take actions they might not otherwise.”


Read more: http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-re ... z1kJs3i6OZ


Peter, You are listening! I'm Proud of you Peter. For others, To state that the numbers are a little fictitious, is like stating" 2001 a space Odyssey" was reality.
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Re: New numbers on deadly bat disease amplify debate

Postby BrianC » Jan 23, 2012 4:44 pm

Mollie Matteson, a conservation advocate for the Center for Biological Diversity, countered that the figure shows continued effort is needed to stop the spread of the disease.
“It is really premature to say little brown bats are hanging on” Matteson said. “Some appear to be surviving , and that’s definitely good news, but the populations have been whacked down to an incredibly small fraction of what they were. I think we could hardly say they’re doing OK now.”


Read more: http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-re ... z1kJuMY2KY


The term "Whacked Down" gives the impression that some one used a baton on them, that's not the case is it?, really, that's not the case is it? sorry you must be the truck driver.
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Re: New numbers on deadly bat disease amplify debate

Postby wyandottecaver » Jan 24, 2012 6:28 pm

Froschauer said the agency used two methods to build its new estimate. One used a mathematical formula where the known population estimates and declines of bats in some states was extrapolated across all the states and Canadian provinces where the disease has been detected.
The other gathered estimates from state wildlife officials of known declines and added them together. Froschauer said both methods produced significantly similar results.


ARE YOU KIDDING ME? they got similar results by adding KNOWN declines together as they did by extrapolating population estimates across states they had no data for? AND that result was 5 million plus? Somebody is lying through their teeth.
I'm not scared of the dark, it's the things IN the dark that make me nervous. :)
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