FWS estimates Bat Death Toll Exceeds 5.5 Million From WNS

[cavergirl]

On the verge of another season of winter hibernating bat surveys, U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service biologists and partners estimate that at least
5.7 million to 6.7 million bats have now died from white-nose syndrome.

http://us.vocuspr.com/Newsroom/Query.as ... Cache=True

[BrianC]

I can't even begin to understand where this number has been arrived from, but we must have some facts that can be questioned now. I have learned that some little Browns have been repopulating and survive where once that was not occurring. I have asked about providing a number of bats repopulating once decimated caves on the same map that shows the spread of White Nose Syndrome, so far to no avail. I would guess that numbers now are going to be used for strengthening an ESA proposal quickly, in sight of any re population facts showing a possible recovery. I surely hope bats have started a rebound, and continue to repopulate, but how will we know without proper reports being posted along with any other news?

[PYoungbaer]

The press release says the number was arrived at during a meeting at last week's Northeast Bat Working Group in Carlisle, PA. It would be good to hear from folks who were there how this number was arrived at.

I know how the first estimate was arrived at at the Austin, TX meeting, and also the data that went into the one developed for Sen. Lautenberg, both of which arrived at the "over a million" estimate. USFWS, in issuing this press release under pressure from Vermont U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy, should be able to show the details of their estimate. Caves and mines that had x amount of bats historically have now declined to y, etc.

We all understand that a certain level of estimation is inevitable, and that it is far easier to document population declines as opposed to bat deaths (i.e. counting carcasses). For example, bats die near an entrance or outside and are quickly scavanged. But good journalism and good science demands accountability from our public servants, especially as public policy and conservation measures are likely to devolve from this announcement. Additional cave closures and possible restrictions to public and private properties, with ensuing economic impact could result and need to be justified with the hardest data.

[wyandottecaver]

yea.....5.5 million bats.....would be nice to know how that number got invented..eerr estimated.

[tncaver]

yea.....5.5 million bats.....would be nice to know how that number got invented..eerr estimated.

This really should be cross examined for accuracy by someone in the NSS that has the data to agree or disagree with that estimate. I
certainly see no evidence of it here in Tennessee.

[wyandottecaver]

TN,

The problem is I dont think ANYONE has the data one way or the other. It simply does not and cannot exist. Period. To know how many died youd either need a count of dead bodies or a pre-WNS number to compare current numbers to. Dead bodies? doesnt exist. range-wide or even statewide Pre-WNS numbers across species? doesnt exist. Current range-wide or statewide numbers across species? doesnt exist.

A Senator wanted a number so they made one, and everybody agreed to it so nobody could be blamed for making up a fictional number. Saying they just don't know and couldn't find out wasn't acceptable for the always right never to be questioned USFWS.

They could have produced a number showing known declines for specific populations in specific places based on previous established surveys...that number would be in the hundreds of thousands at best. Did more bats than that die? certainly....but we cant show it or even guess very intelligently about it for even 1 species like little browns that live as often in attics as in caves. For species like small footed myotis and long-eared that are hard to find let alone count....even existing mark-recapture studies for bats cant get you very far.

I suspect If you added the latest existing bat census for every single site east of the Mississippi together you *might* get to 5 million bats.

[Chads93GT]

My thoughts...........


Tom the anchorman: “Peril, crisis and fear tonight as what appears to be a massive flood has overtaken the town of Beaverton, Colorado, home of the world’s largest beaver dam. Earlier today, a break in the beaver dam which protected the town broke open, trapping people in their houses and destroying their lives.”

Mitch, the reporter: “Tom, I’m currently ten miles outside of Beaverton, unable to get inside the town proper. We do not have any reports of fatalities yet, but we believe that the death toll may be in the hundreds of millions. Beaverton has only a population of about 8,000, Tom, so this would be quite devastating.”

Tom: “Any word on how the survivors in the town are doing, Mitch?”

Mitch: “We’re not sure what’s exactly is going on inside the town of Beaverton, Tom, but we’re reporting that there’s looting, raping and, yes, even acts of cannibalism.”

Tom: “My God, you’ve actually seen people looting, raping and eating each other?!”

Mitch: “No, no we’ve haven’t actually seen it, Tom. We’re just reporting it.”

[tncaver]

A Senator wanted a number so they made one, and everybody agreed to it so nobody could be blamed for making up a fictional number. Saying they just don't know and couldn't find out wasn't acceptable for the always right never to be questioned USFWS.

Yes, wyandottecaver, I think you may be right. The very first post in this thread shines a headlight at the culprits, and the following partial
sentence explains a lot.

"U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service biologists and partners ESTIMATE....."

Yes, they estimated, but was there any real data to back up the estimate? It also seems their estimate was based on northern
USA and CANADA. Does the USFWS have jurisdiction in Canada? Since when does a Candian situation have any bearing on data
(or lack of data) affecting policy in the USA?

[Teresa]

I'm totally frustrated and partially angry. I could repost the FWS news release, but really don't want to, since the NR document has logical and documentary holes big enough to drive an 18-wheeler through. I have no way to confirm nor deny what they are reporting. Even the people who issued the NR are saying (essentially) that this is a SWAG. And yet, the "sky is falling with dead bats" folks have jumped on this report as if people really did have documentary numerical evidence and they are going to repeat it and repeat it ad nauseum. This is what is known as disinformation...not merely misinformation.

And the point of this is: can't be science, seems to be that other stuff.

[BrianC]

I'm totally frustrated and partially angry. I could repost the FWS news release, but really don't want to, since the NR document has logical and documentary holes big enough to drive an 18-wheeler through. I have no way to confirm nor deny what they are reporting. Even the people who issued the NR are saying (essentially) that this is a SWAG. And yet, the "sky is falling with dead bats" folks have jumped on this report as if people really did have documentary numerical evidence and they are going to repeat it and repeat it ad nauseum. This is what is known as disinformation...not merely misinformation.

And the point of this is: can't be science, seems to be that other stuff.

I'm not sure if you have been on BCM's forum, but it will give some explanation into the supporters thinking process. (not that they gave the data for this NR). Radio frequency illnesses as well as washing powders effect on health keeping people from living a normal life. I know this is getting , but I just had to do it!

[wyandottecaver]

Brian,

you referring to a BCI (bat conservation international) forum, or the BCM (bat conservation and management) forum? I havent been to the BCI forum, but I know the radio frequency and pesticide conspiracists are rampant on the BCM forum.

[BrianC]

Brian,

you referring to a BCI (bat conservation international) forum, or the BCM (bat conservation and management) forum? I havent been to the BCI forum, but I know the radio frequency and pesticide conspiracists are rampant on the BCM forum.

http://www.batmanagement.com/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl You are correct, BCI doesn't have a public forum. I will edit.

[tncaver]

Brian,

you referring to a BCI (bat conservation international) forum, or the BCM (bat conservation and management) forum? I havent been to the BCI forum, but I know the radio frequency and pesticide conspiracists are rampant on the BCM forum.

You've lost me here. Please provide links to both.

[wyandottecaver]

TN,

see Brian's response above. He meant BCM and provided the link.

[cave3d]

Peter is quoted in article in Montana paper
http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-re ... 963f4.html