Has WNS slowed down?

[BrianC]

because if WNS suddenly pops up in Colorado next winter it's going to be really hard convincing people that humans are not spreading the disease.

Obviously, you are not convinced that humans are not spreading WNS. That is OK, because the facts show that the fungus would have already shown its ugly face in many places where cavers have been in contact after being in contact where WNS has been confirmed. I know that it is hard for some folks to believe in the obvious, when they have been instructed otherwise. Facts don't provide truth for you. Oh well, Some of us only look at facts to justify our actions. Theories are proven wrong all the time. The only understanding we don't exactly have is, Why have some people continued to support the human vector theory? The answer seems to be, Money for research!

[nathanroser]

I generally believe humans are not spreading the disease. I think it is possible for viable spores to be picked up and brought from cave to cave, but the chance of humans spreading the disease to bats is very low if not impossible simply because any responsible caver does not go touching bats. And there's the simple logic that people do not hang from ceilings and go dragging themselves through every tiny crevice that bats roost in that are physically impossible for a person to fit into. So basically I think people could be a vector for the fungal spores but we do not spread the disease because we do not come into direct contact with the bats.

[tncaver]

In KY where I was ridgewalking (and there are caves) though, it is farmland...lots of cattle not crops though. They're always throwing stuff into holes to keep the cows from falling in! So the mountainous rocky terrain isn't necessarily needed for caves - just limestone exposed. Or like Mendip or the Dales out in England, here is a view out of the Dump (in the Yorkshire Dales, best vert caving in England) - prolly can't tell but those are sheep all over the place :) It doesn't exactly appear all rocky and mountainous....

You've got a good point there, I guess it just depends on where you look, places like New York have lots of farmland but all the rocks were piled up into fences hundreds of years ago so it depends on how long the place has been cultivated and since there's few crops there would be little pesticide use. I still think the fungus is the cause of the disease but bats are the primary vector. Hopefully everyone is extra careful at the convention though (I'm not going since it's 2000 miles away from me but I'll probably go to 2012 and 2013 since they're close.) because if WNS suddenly pops up in Colorado next winter it's going to be really hard convincing people that humans are not spreading the disease. I do think as it spreads south it will be less severe in terms of percent mortality due to warmer temperatures, but total bat losses will be greater since the southwest has some humongous colonies.

Cavers have been going to Alabama and Kentucky since the early to mid 1900's yet there is still no WNS there. However the gov't is still convinced cavers might
spread WNS. It's pretty obvious cavers are not the vector. Same for TN except that after four years of bat migration, WNS finally found it's way into
a few places. Some were gated and some were not. Bats are in both. Cavers were not. Same for that Ohio mine. After all these years WNS finally made it into
a mine there. A gated mine that cavers don't go in. My point here is, if WNS shows up in Colorado it still doesn't mean that cavers brought it there.

[LukeM]

My point here is, if WNS shows up in Colorado it still doesn't mean that cavers brought it there.

We, as cavers, already know that. The point that was brought up was about how it would look to non-cavers.

[tncaver]

My point here is, if WNS shows up in Colorado it still doesn't mean that cavers brought it there.

We, as cavers, already know that. The point that was brought up was about how it would look to non-cavers.

It seems the only way to know is to take a poll of several thousand non cavers. How is that going to happen?

[BrianC]

My point here is, if WNS shows up in Colorado it still doesn't mean that cavers brought it there.

We, as cavers, already know that. The point that was brought up was about how it would look to non-cavers.

It seems the only way to know is to take a poll of several thousand non cavers. How is that going to happen?

Non cavers have not done the research as some cavers have, so they would not have a clue. This is why I get extremely upset with every single article talking about WNS to the general public publicly proclaiming that humans are a vector of the disease.

[LukeM]

My point here is, if WNS shows up in Colorado it still doesn't mean that cavers brought it there.

We, as cavers, already know that. The point that was brought up was about how it would look to non-cavers.

It seems the only way to know is to take a poll of several thousand non cavers. How is that going to happen?

TN, I think we can come to the conclusion that overall it would look bad to an uninformed member of the public, even without taking a poll. That's through no fault of our own, just a consequence of the circumstances.

[tncaver]

My point here is, if WNS shows up in Colorado it still doesn't mean that cavers brought it there.

We, as cavers, already know that. The point that was brought up was about how it would look to non-cavers.

It seems the only way to know is to take a poll of several thousand non cavers. How is that going to happen?

TN, I think we can come to the conclusion that overall it would look bad to an uninformed member of the public, even without taking a poll. That's through no fault of our own, just a consequence of the circumstances.

Agreed. And as Brian C mentioned, it's because the Feds and some biologists continue pointing a finger at us with no real proof. Quite frankly I think they
will never find any real proof because there is none. Only speculation on their part about what could be. IMHO.

[hewhocaves]

Getting back to the original "Is it spreading faster / slower" question....
In NJ there are two counties affected - Warren and Morris Co. There are three - four additional counties with significant bat populations in them: Sussex, Hunterdon, Somerset and (possibly) Passaic. Since the first round of NJ counties hit there hasn't been any change. I find that difficult to believe, personally. The other option is that these places aren't being looked at. That's partly because there aren't enough bat biologsts around, but mostly because the one group with enough skilled members to do all the necessary legwork has been thoroughly villified throughout this process. As a result, the science suffers.

Ive been around cavers enough to know that, when interested and embraced, they make excellent field researchers. And I honestly believe that when WNS is completely in the past one of the great lessons learned will be the missed opportunity to understand the spread of an epidemic in unparalleled detail. Basically the politicians blew it big time and I, for one, have no problem with them being held completely accountable for their misguided decisions.

[dfcaver]

I think the answer at this time seems to be - NO. Thirty seven new counties have been added to the map this season...although not the best or even a good measure of documenting WNS spread and impacts, it's about all we have to go on. Given the number of reports that are being added to the map, we're probably not done yet for this season. What may have slowed is the pace of reporting. Next winter will tell if we continue to see a southward push. The northward push into Canada is interesting. Kind of argues against human transport, as I'm assuming most of those locales are mines, not caves.

[dfcaver]

Report of Chester Mine in MA; prior to 2008 between 8000-10000 bats; now the count is just 14.

http://www.telegram.com/article/2011080 ... 003/NEWS03

[tncaver]

Theoretically, if humans were spreading WNS, the number of infected bats and caves would grow exponentially. This has not happened. Cavers and other humans travel great distances in a short period of time. Bats usually travel only a limited distance per year (barring the hitching of a ride on a conveyance or via the wind). One factor limiting the spread of WNS is the caves themselves. In areas with fewer caves there is likely to be less WNS, although some bats do hibernate under bridges, in trees and in houses, etc. This year I've read very little about WNS spreading. I presume that is because #1 it isn't spreading as fast as the USFWS expected, or #2 the facts are being concealed to prolong the funding. The last WNS map I saw, seems to indicate that the spread may have slowed down
for the USA. The spread is still following the basic migratory routes where caves exist as opposed to where cavers (aka humans) go.

[DeanWiseman]

This year I've read very little about WNS spreading. I presume that is because #1 it isn't spreading as fast as the USFWS expected, or #2 the facts are being concealed to prolong the funding. The last WNS map I saw, seems to indicate that the spread may have slowed down for the USA.

Just a quick thing to point out.

The recent article in PLoS One about WNS in Europe concluded that WNS distribution is highly correlated with temperature. We cannot rule out that the perhaps slower-than-expected progression through the US may be because the primary direction of the spread specifically in the U.S. is a south and southwest direction, into areas where temperatures are higher. Canada may be a different story, but data is so much more spotty there, it's hard to know.


But I do agree with you that if the relative risk of human transmission were anything but miniscule, we'd predict a vastly different pattern of spread. But again, we can't yet rule out the influence of even just a degree or two warmer average cave temps. That much was enough for Europe...

-Dean

[tncaver]

Cave temperatures in Britain average 10 to 12 degrees celsius (50 to 54 degrees farenheit). That should be cool enough for GD to thrive yet it isn't.
Temps in more southern Europe are most likely warmer except for the alps and higher areas. Frankly I'm glad the warmer South is slowing down if
not stopping the progression of WNS. I'm guessing there will be a similar correlation in Canada to the North. Eventually temperatures will likely get to cold for
WNS just as it may be too warm in the South. I certainly hope so. We should see a slowing down of the spread of WNS to the North and South. It may
work it's way West eventually, but if humans were spreading it, it would have been found there several years ago. It amazes me that officials can not
seem to grasp the obvious.

[wyandottecaver]

Here in the US cave temps certainly play a role, but the bigger factor is likely outside temps. First, warmer areas have longer feeding seasons and shorter hibernating seasons. This means a bats period of vulnerability is *presumably* shorter while their period for recovery longer. Second, it means that G.D. on summer bats must endure an enviroment at least marginally poorer for it, while being much better for it's other competitors.

Europe should be used with caution when making comparisons. Not only is the morphology of many of their bats different, but there has been time for those bats, and perhaps competitors to G.D. to evolve. Finally, the MUCH lower density of bats in Britian and other parts of Europe means that the whole dynamic of G.D. spread will likely be different. Think about the flu trying to move between people in southern FL vs the southern Saraha.