winter 2010-11 where will WNS show up first

[BrianC]

Looking at all the data and maps with migratory habits of bats, Where can we predict new cases of White Nose Syndrome?

Could WNS spread by humans be predicted if it were possible. Where would it show up?

[Mudduck]

Are there any WNS surveys scheduled for Gov. lands that anyones aware of??

[PYoungbaer]

Mudduck,

There will be lots of them, depending on how you define WNS survey. For example, 2011 is the normal year of the biennial Indiana bat surveys, so most will check for WNS during the course of that.

Where are you going with your question?

[Mudduck]

I'm really going nowhere with the question. More curiosity than anything. I'm the type that ponders scenerios and I like to address open ends from the most knowledgable means i know which are you guys. I've found questions to Forest supervisors tend to be answered with press statements and automated responses. I know many of you are tied through employment , politics as well as friendships in enough areas to be able to answer these questions efficiently. It just makes sense to me at least on a district level the NF's and their kin would perform their own respective surveys at least in areas directly ahead of the "advancing front" if you will. Otherwise how would monitoring be accomplished without people like us which are no longer in the loop. Personally I do what i can to monitor cave entrances but of course thats where I'm limited(due to closures).I would think surveys would be at the forefront of every field biologist minds otherwise how can the advance of WNS ever be accurately documented.

[PYoungbaer]

Mudduck,

I appreciate that reply. There are certainly other planned monitoring and surveillance activities. Examine the Alabama WNS Plan for example, which has a prioritized and targeted approach as a potential front line state. Virginia has had a series of grants, including one from the NSS, to track WNS as it was initially identified, and then through more than a year's now of disease progression. New York state does annual hibernacula surveys in concert with northeastern cavers, and now has four years of WNS-related documentation, which has been very helpful in analyzing the impact of the disease on bat populations - providing a possible predictor or benchmark for other states to compare. Virtually all states are in significant budget crises, as is the federal government. Funding for wildlife staff is under great pressure, so boots on the ground (or under the ground) are going to be very limited, unless they engage the organized caving community to assist. Kentucky has done this very well, working with grottos to monitor cave entrances for bat activity that might signal a WNS infestation. Tennessee cavers have long assisted with bat surveys, and were the ones to discover WNS there. We have long urged state and federal agencies to partner with local cavers to assist in this, and there is no reason to change that approach.

[BrianC]

This shows around 400 miles from most infected sites. When considering two way migratory ranges, this will be close to 2010/11 winter/ spring positive wns sites. Certainly longer range spreading will occur because all infected bat caves have not been identified. but it should be close.

[wyandottecaver]

I suspect we will see a delayed WNS progression this year. In the midwest we had warm temperatures well into early Dec. This means that most bats probably delayed hibernation or at least were actively foraging longer after reaching hibernation sites. The warmer temps may also have inhibited GD growth. Add to this the very very dry dessicating conditions through much of the "front" area, and I think it will be a slower year for WNS.

However, the real world might easily make me a liar since the "front" is now poised at the heartland of eastern bat populations.....

[PYoungbaer]

Wyandottecaver,

I'm not sure the warmer temperatures later into the fall are a good thing for delaying WNS. One of the notable findings of Jonathan Reichard's study at Mt. Aeolus Bat Cave in Vermont was that temperatures were warmer later into the fall than comparable data from 1975 at Aeolus - one of the few places where such data exists. Reichard was testing several hypotheses, one of which was whether or not bats were putting on appropriate amounts of body fat prior to hibernation. His data showed that the 2008 bats put on fat just like the 1975 bats, but that because the fall was warmer later, they then lost some of that fat storage by staying active until mid-October. Interestingly, climate data showed temperatures had warmed one full degree Celcius since 1975.

It would be good to know if anyone in the Midwest collected similar fat storage data for comparison. I'm not aware of anyone who did, but if others are aware, please let us know.

[cavergirl]

Are there any WNS surveys scheduled for Gov. lands that anyones aware of??

Peter has already posted the new Tennessee WNS monitoring/surveillance plan
http://www.caves.org/WNS/wnstnplan%202010.pdf

table 6, pp 14-17 list the caves that will be monitored this winter.

[Pippin]

How many caves are in TN? Is it over 8000 now? I find it interesting that such a small number of caves are going to be checked given the huge number of TN caves. Is TWRA working at all with state cavers to check out caves not on their list? Have they talked to Grottos about what to do if cavers see a sick bat?

[wyandottecaver]

Well that could be an interesting. increased vulnerability due to lower fat reserves or increased immune response due to a longer pre-hibernation period.... I'm still guessing that just the friggin heat and ultra dry air alone created a pretty hostile fungal environment in S Indiana.

Maybe we should just start farming moths at hibernacula entrances...at least the "clean" ones, Electrified harp traps should work for infected sites.......

[BrianC]

January is almost over and with the exception of one account of bats flying around an entrance in an already devastated area, no reports have come in from the new surveillance groups. What's up with that?

[Leitmotiv]

Before you jump the gun BrianC, it could be as simple as someone holding on to their data. It seems like we saw the same the year previous.

[BrianC]

Before you jump the gun BrianC, it could be as simple as someone holding on to their data. It seems like we saw the same the year previous.

I will have to agree with you Leitmotiv. What benefit would not sharing obvious inspections provide?

[PYoungbaer]

Brian, it's very early. We do have several reports already from West Virginia, including Hellhole on Jan. 18, where little browns were seen exiting the cave at the rate of 28/5 minutes. New York is just gearing up for their annual surveys, which will take place over the next month or so. I received a message from Virginia wildlife folks who are out looking now. Anyway, the point is that it's still early for initial reports. Laboratory confirmation takes even longer, as you know.