winter 2010-11 where will WNS show up first

[BrianC]

Brian, it's very early. We do have several reports already from West Virginia, including Hellhole on Jan. 18, where little browns were seen exiting the cave at the rate of 28/5 minutes. New York is just gearing up for their annual surveys, which will take place over the next month or so. I received a message from Virginia wildlife folks who are out looking now. Anyway, the point is that it's still early for initial reports. Laboratory confirmation takes even longer, as you know.

Thanks Peter, We know Hellhole and that area will be hit hard again. What I want to know, Is the Tenn, Ky,In,Oh,Ga,Ala. and westward showing any signs yet? erratic movements around entrances are easy to spot if being watched.

[cavergirl]

="BrianC: What I want to know, Is the Tenn, Ky,In,Oh,Ga,Ala. and westward showing any signs yet? erratic movements around entrances are easy to spot if being watched.

As for TN, I have been told (unofficially) by members of the TN Bat working group that TN surveys will not be conducted until late in the hibernation period. The G.d. grows slowly and is more likely to be spotted later than earlier. Also they want to minimize disturbance to the bats. Late March- early April is when they will start looking. Unless the "public" starts reporting bats flying around in the dead of winter or bats dying on the landscape, we probably won't know anything for a few more months.

[BrianC]

="BrianC: What I want to know, Is the Tenn, Ky,In,Oh,Ga,Ala. and westward showing any signs yet? erratic movements around entrances are easy to spot if being watched.

As for TN, I have been told (unofficially) by members of the TN Bat working group that TN surveys will not be conducted until late in the hibernation period. The G.d. grows slowly and is more likely to be spotted later than earlier. Also they want to minimize disturbance to the bats. Late March- early April is when they will start looking. Unless the "public" starts reporting bats flying around in the dead of winter or bats dying on the landscape, we probably won't know anything for a few more months.

I'm not interested in the survey as far as seeing signs of WNS.

That sounds almost futile since winged insects are flying in March, so are the bats. That time frame will require actually going inside caves ,and will only see signs if lucky enough to find something not eaten by vermin. Entrance surveillance would best be dispatched at the present time, if looking for White Nose Syndrome is the purpose.

[Pippin]

I'm involved in the Alabama Bat Working Group and last year they did all of their monitoring in February. This year they're not planning to even start monitoring until Feb. 15 and will visit the largest bat caves as late in the season as possible (mid to late March). The reason is as Batgirl described, the later in the year they look, the more likely it is that if bats are affected by WNS that the signs will be more obvious. From what I hear, biologists are going into about 40 caves in TN and about 41 in AL. I don't know anything about what other states are doing. All of the surveys in Alabama will be over by the end of March so if anything is up, we won't hear about it until at least the end of February when monitoring really gets going. Nobody is hiding data, there just isn't any data yet for this year. As far as I know, biologists are not planning to do any surveys of cave entrances throughout the season. They just don't have the staff for that. I visited the entrance to the largest gray bat hibernaculum at Christmas and didn't see anything suspicious.

[Pippin]

Oh, and just to clarify, all of this monitoring is for gray and Indiana bat caves. I don't know about Indianas, but I know that grays stay in hibernation caves until at least mid-April in Alabama so they'll still be in their caves during March surveys.

[BrianC]

I'm involved in the Alabama Bat Working Group and last year they did all of their monitoring in February. This year they're not planning to even start monitoring until Feb. 15 and will visit the largest bat caves as late in the season as possible (mid to late March). The reason is as Batgirl described, the later in the year they look, the more likely it is that if bats are affected by WNS that the signs will be more obvious. From what I hear, biologists are going into about 40 caves in TN and about 41 in AL. I don't know anything about what other states are doing. All of the surveys in Alabama will be over by the end of March so if anything is up, we won't hear about it until at least the end of February when monitoring really gets going. Nobody is hiding data, there just isn't any data yet for this year. As far as I know, biologists are not planning to do any surveys of cave entrances throughout the season. They just don't have the staff for that. I visited the entrance to the largest gray bat hibernaculum at Christmas and didn't see anything suspicious.

Pippin, this makes perfect sense for bat counts, but doesn't give any descent facts as far as early signs of WNS. Obviously, if indeed the hibernation site has been hit hard, it will be known when the bat count is done. Entrance surveillance was such a big thing with WNS, what happened?

[Pippin]

Brian, I've been asking these same questions too. I didn't understand why biologists are insisting on going into some of these huge bat caves and risking disturbing them if the bats might be sick. From what I've been told, this in-cave monitoring is how they hope to find early signs of WNS. Biologists in AL say that if WNS affects some of the big gray bat caves this year, the bats may not be sick enough this first year to be flying in the middle of the winter (like right now). Since grays haven't been hit yet they don't really know what to expect. The biologists here have told me entrance surveys won't be adequate since just a couple bats might be hiding in a cave covered by white fuzz but not yet flying around. The biologists I know are planning to go into the caves not primarily to count bats, they're primarily going in to see if bats have WNS. I don't know, but I suspect that if caves in our area get WNS this year, next year they will transition into more entrance monitoring. But I'm not sure. Just passing on what I've heard!

[wyandottecaver]

I'll try and clear up some of the confusion hopefully without creating more! Most of this is my interpretation based on the various reports I've seen and should not be taken as "gospel".

WNS Bats flying outside in winter, generally only seems to happen when the bats have exhausted all their fat reserves. This means its not usually until later in the winter and then only if they were already infected early in hibernation. Prior to that they may have visible fungus but are not yet "desperate" enough to actually emerge.

Entrance checks were primarily intended as a way for cavers to help report WNS without actually going IN. They also serve the same purpose for biologists when early detection is not as important as low disturbance. In some cases like mines its simply too dangerous for entry. However, entrance checks probably are not very useful for Year 1 detection of WNS as most bats never get to the "desperate" stage. They are probably good for year 2 and maybe 3. Years 3-5 there probably wont be enough bats left to notice.....

When thinking about WNS at a site (as opposed to individuals) its probably easier to think of it in phases, which for practical purposes = years. However depending on the site each phase might be 2 years long or more.

Phase I: initial infection.
This is where one or more bats previously infected elsewhere (spring emergence, summer roosting, fall mating) arrive to hibernate. WNS (Actually G.D.) begins to spread slowly or maybe rapidly through the population depending on cluster densities, number of initially infected bats etc. In most cases it seems only those bats originally infected or infected early-mid hibernation season are affected enough to start flying outside and that not till the end of winter when fat reserves are gone. The majority of bats may only be in the early stages by the end of winter (fungus but not flying outside) and many bats may not be infected at all yet. Thus bats flying outside are only going to occur late and probably not in great numbers that 1st year. We probably won't know WNS is there unless we happen to see a fuzzy bat and that means going in.

Phase II: Full WNS
(some unknown percent) of the bats first infected late in Phase I manage to survive the spring/summer/fall period by being able to forage but return fully infected with WNS and likely with lower fat reserves. The hibernacula now has many bats to start spreading WNS right from the start and probably is contaminated environmentally (soil, roost sites) from the previous year. Thus WNS is able to spread throughout most of the colony early in the year. By winters end most bats are out of fat reserves and flying out. These Phase II sites can be identified by entrance checks, but again only later in winter after the bats have burned off all their fat. A few bats may remain uninfected until very late or not be infected at all.

Phase III: Mop Up
Most of the bats died in Phase II. Those infected late or not at all return to the hibernacula along with new transient bats that "stumble onto" the hibernacula. WNS is still being spread bat-bat and possibly environmentally, but there are few bats left so both the numbers infected and the numbers flying in late winter are small. The site may continue to hold bats in very low densities as new bats show up and will likely continue to infect them.

[BrianC]

Phase II: Full WNS
(some unknown percent) of the bats first infected late in Phase I manage to survive the spring/summer/fall period by being able to forage but return fully infected with WNS and likely with lower fat reserves. The hibernacula now has many bats to start spreading WNS right from the start and probably is contaminated environmentally (soil, roost sites) from the previous year. Thus WNS is able to spread throughout most of the colony early in the year. By winters end most bats are out of fat reserves and flying out. These Phase II sites can be identified by entrance checks, but again only later in winter after the bats have burned off all their fat. A few bats may remain uninfected until very late or not be infected at all.

I tend to confer on most if not all your points (phases), and this is why I make this statement. Seeing as last spring bats infected with WNS, or what you call phase I, were detected in Tennessee and more than likely, within a 250 mile radius, phase II should be the winter detection time. If we do not start seeing distressed bats in the next couple weeks in this radius, then we should start considering that possibly bats are not as contagious as has been first considered. Moreover, it would lead to the possibility that bats have only been infected at a close to epicenter procurement, and have been moving to other caves by means of all transportation modes where the syndrome will eventually fall apart as deaths of infected bats run their course. Obviously this is just hypothetical right now, but very possible considering all the strange facts provided to date.

[wyandottecaver]

Well,

I'm not sure I will fully agree there. The sites that had only a single bat and it being removed probably don't even count yet. The one site in TN the bat had almost certainly just arrived and it was removed fairly early having not been seen on a bat survey just a few weeks earlier (it was even a different species). It is *possible* that WNS was not even transmitted to that site at all. Even if it was, spread will be less than if you had a fully infected bat hopping around all winter.

Remember I also said some sites might be 2 yrs or more per phase.

Thus its possible that TN didn't actually have ANY true phase I (my term) sites last year if it didn't have any sites where infected bats were LEFT there. Thus, we might see some winter emergence from last years sites...or might not.

By contrast, we know WV has multiple sites entering their 2nd full year.

[BrianC]

I will hopefully be looking at some cave entrances later this week to see if any bats are acting funny around the entrance. I am familiar with these caves and do know that small counts of little browns live there. The bats never hang around the entrances, they get in and out quickly, and should not be anywhere around the entrance outside. This is what I would recommend that all cavers do for the next month in the adjoining states to confirmed WNS sites, states.

[TNCave]

Hi all,

I thought I'd throw in my two cents as a member of the TN WNS group that will be perorming disease surveillance this year.
In TN last year only the Sullivan and Carter Co. caves were heavily infected sites and had full blown WNS. The other four sites showed far less signs on less bats and for the most part was considered very early detection as only the wings had G.d. growth and not the muzzles; excepting one site where it was on an endangered species and couldn't be pulled. We're a bit fortunate as far as WNS surveillance is concerned as we know it's coming and we know what to look for. In NY, when WNS was noticed by a caver, it may have been a second or third year infection of that site, we don't really know.

Entrance surveys: I'm not going to discourage anyone from performing entrance surveys, and if you see something suspicious I hope you'll alert the proper folks and work with us to verify the location. We are only performing entrance surveys on a few of the largest gray bat sites in TN. Entance surveys are likely to only be effective if you either have a lot of bats in a cave, or you are there at just the right time when bats are flying out and it is really cold. Bats in the Northeast are often stopped at the entrance because they can have physical limitations related to flying in extremely cold temperatues. Here in TN, the chances of the weather being warm enough for bats to fly out and die on the landscape is increased, so the entrance checks were considered a bit of a gamble for us. Brian for sites like you describe where you know the cave and the usual roosting locations, you should have a good sense of whether the bats are behaving differently or unusually without showing obvious signs of G.d. or WNS.

Cory

[BrianC]

or you are there at just the right time when bats are flying out and it is really cold. Here in TN, the chances of the weather being warm enough for bats to fly out and die on the landscape is increased, so the entrance checks were considered a bit of a gamble for us.

Cory

Cory thank you for the information, you are exactly saying what I thought was expected to be the times that entrance surveillance would be conducted. I had assumed that this surveillance had been already scheduled with officials and volunteers. So I was very wrong to assume this? We have had some extreme cold temps in the past few weeks, so we let this chance get by us. It would seem that the prime times of surveillance be projected and scheduled for the least chance of bat disturbance by only needing entrance studies. I missed the Tenn karst and cave meeting due to work demands, but would love to hear what WNS business was discussed. perhaps on the thread that was started on the subject. It would seem so easy to gain volunteers from grottoes in the immediate regions closely affected, to check certain cave entrances and report findings. This could be solicited as a grotto event, even a conservation effort. Weekly or bi-weekly surveillance during this prime time span. If we miss this opportunity, we will have missed an entire year. I apologize, but I did assume that something was being created as a front line notice for WNS surveillance.

[TNCave]

Hi Brian,

You are pretty well correct. We performed multiple types of surveillance last year throughout the hibernation season, and when to conduct surveys is dependent on the exact goals. Definitely due to our lack of organization we can easily lose a year if we're not careful. The goals of the TN WNS surveillance team this year is simply to monitor existing known G.d. or WNS sites for mortality and levels of fungal growth on bats, and to identify new sites. Additionally, we are working with a handful of WNS researchers and helping them to obtain data and materials as well. The decision to push back disease surveillance to Feb. is due to the increased G.d. detection we had last year later in the hibernation season. We only want to enter each hibernacula once per season. Pushing back the date gives the fungus more time to grow increasing our chances of seeing it and when we disturb the bats, it's not during the coldest part of the winter. The trade-off is that some bats tend to move around throughout the winter and are only found in caves on the coldest days, we will likely miss many of those bats.

Also, to assume we have already coordinated with volunteers and grottos is giving us way too much credit. As a group, we have been horrible about coordinating with cavers. I'll admit that it is a complicated issue, but for the most part, we have not done it well. Last year, I notified grottos before coming to an area and worked weekends in an attempt to gain volunteers, but had very little turnout. I figure this is mostly due to short notice and, let's face it, public image problems. Nobody wants to be caught working with a cooperating organization on WNS. Seriously, we're trying to right some past wrongs and are looking for ways to increase communication and coordination.

I think one major missed point is that no one person or agency is in the lead of WNS in TN. Instead, it's an informal group of busy folks trying to do the best they can with the resources they have. The agencies and organizations working on WNS in TN are largely pulled in from the TN Bat Working Group, which we were lucky to have had in place.

Cory

[PYoungbaer]

Well, in the traditional words of the circus clowns, "Here we go again!"

The first updated WNS map of 2011. Two new counties for VA. Rick Reynolds confirms Russell and Pulaski Counties.
and in PA- Lawrence Co (far western county) is now considered confirmed from last winter’s season due to lab results.

click to enlarge